By Agnese Coletta
With the conclusion of both the US and Mexico's 2024 presidential election, immigration policies and border security are once again one of the key issues discussed in US politics. Although the US 47th President has now been elected, what different effects could Mexico’s new president have had on the policies and ideas of both presidential candidates? What will the future of the US-Mexico border be?
The United States and Immigration
In the United States, immigration policies and border control are not new topics, especially when presidential elections are around the corner. As of 2023, the US Customs and Border Protection reported a record number of over 2.7 million encounters at the Southwest border, thus reflecting a continued rise in migration. However, this year, an additional factor is influencing this matter, as Mexico has elected Claudia Sheinbaum, the country’s first female president. Her presidency could significantly impact US-Mexico relations, as she has stated that she will focus on addressing the root causes of migration, which may influence future immigration flow into the United States.
Both US 2024 presidential candidates Kamala Harris (Democrat) and Donald Trump (Republican), have had the chance to address the subject on multiple occasions. The results of the Mexican election would likely have had impacts on their ideas and promises on border and immigration policies, which meant that, no matter which candidate was going to be elected, those projects would have probably needed to be recalibrated.
The Republican Approach
The United States-Mexico border and immigration issues have been a rising concern in the US, as citizens feel as though the government is not taking enough effective action, and immigration policies need to be reviewed.
For Trump’s Republican Party, immigration has been a key issue. He has vowed to his supporters to “deport millions of undocumented immigrants”. This was evident when, at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in March 2023, Trump stated that if elected, he would have hired more officers and agents to carry out mass deportations.
Trump has also pledged to reinstate his Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), known as the “Remain in Mexico Program” under which asylum seekers are required to wait in Mexico while immigration proceedings are carried out. Trump’s administration has further proposed to divert asylum seekers to third countries willing to accept them, such as Mexico; however, this measure would heavily depend on the cooperation of those countries.
The Democratic Approach
On the other hand, the Democratic party, which was in government until the latest elections, with presidential candidate Kamala Harris as Vice President, has taken a diverse stance on the matter, focusing on more humane and comprehensive reforms. This reverses some of the border policies considered to be the most strict, previously established by Trump’s administration during his 2016 presidency, including the MPP. In June 2024, President Biden issued an executive order that has helped decrease the number of border crossings, while upholding humane treatment of migrants.
Prior to the elections, Harris had pledged to maintain this approach if elected. Harris stated that she was going to sign the Bipartisan Border Security Bill that Congress was unable to pass in 2024 due to Republican opposition into law. This bill aims to balance the loophole of increased border security with the asylum process.
Mexico: Sheinbaum Administration
The Sheinbaum presidency focuses on continuing cooperation with the United States when talking about immigration since it would also help reduce the flow of migrants into Mexico. Migrants coming from South and Central America, if denied entrance into the United States, remain in Mexico. This means that it is no longer solely a ‘transit’ country through which people reach the US. For this reason, Sheinbaum has expressed the need for the United States to provide funds and resources to help Mexico manage the influx of migrants, therefore reducing the number of migrants coming into the States. She also believes in US-funded social programs, which aim to tackle the root causes of migration. Sheinbaum’s aim is to improve the conditions of migrants and citizens within Mexico, thus hoping to reduce the number of crossings into the United States.
Overall, Mexico’s new presidency is expected to prioritise human rights and regional cooperation over militarised border security, which could have created problems and called for adjustments in the strategies and the plans of both US presidential candidates.
Implications for Trump’s Campaign
For the Trump administration, Sheinbaum’s presidency could pose some additional challenges. If Mexico fails to cooperate in the enforcement of the “Remain in Mexico Program” and in the detainment and deportation of illegal immigrants, Trump’s vision of strict border control could be impaired. A lack of support from Mexico would thus force the newly elected President to rely on more heavily unilateral measures. This would inevitably result in much higher costs and a more unstable reality, particularly in areas of international relations, as well as economic agreements, and the overall security of the border.
Potential Advantages for Harris
Kamala Harris’ take on immigration issues was to ultimately fix the US’s “broken immigration system”, aiming to balance border security and a “safe, orderly and humane” system. She told her supporters at a campaign event in Douglas "We can and must do both", referring specifically to balancing border security and human safety. Her approach could have been more easily supported by the Mexican President’s administration, which could have been helpful in effectively realising the current Vice President’s plans.
With the Mexican presidency, and the Democratic’s proposals both focusing on cooperation and humanitarian solutions, collaborative and efficient solutions might have been easier to reach.
What Would The Possible Consequences Have Been?
Both candidates would have had to navigate the evolving landscape of the immigration issue together with the new presidential administration in Mexico, and clarify their stances on these issues in order to settle the US citizens’ concerns.
For the Republican party, Sheinbaum’s administration might present some challenges. If Mexico were to not cooperate with the Republicans’ plans, Trump’s potential solutions for the immigration issues might be harder to reach.
In contrast, for the Democratic party, Mexico’s new government could have been beneficial. Both the Mexican President, and the Vice President of the United States have similar approaches in terms of addressing the immigration issue. Harris aims to fix the United States’ broken immigration system, balancing border security with humane treatments. If Sheinbaum were to support this process, facilitating a collaborative approach, the Democrats' aims could have been more easily reached.
Ultimately, the relationship between the United States and Mexico could crucially affect the present immigration issues. Both the Democratic and the Republican party have thoroughly addressed the topic and have stated their approaches. Nevertheless, Mexico’s new presidency would likely have posed significant challenges to their plans, especially for the Republican party which has now been elected, thus creating a need for adjustments.
Sources: BBC, Politico, The Washington Post, CNN, Elcano Royal Institute, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Global Financial Market Review.
Written by Agnese Coletta, November 2024.
Edited by Nina Gush & Sarah Valkenburg
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