The Illusion of Economic Security in a Zero-Migration America

By Nina Lewandoswka

As visa fees and deportations increase, refugee admissions drop to almost zero, and international student applications fall, we are quickly coming to the realisation that the United States is closing its doors to the world. Year after year, since the 1930s, more people have moved to America than have left. The Trump administration, in its pursuit of its zero-migration policy, has effectively reversed this long-standing trend. 

America’s Ageing Population

Immigration has quietly propped up the American labour market for decades, replenishing a workforce that is steadily growing older and older. With fewer migrants arriving, the economic costs of an ageing population are no longer just theoretical, but are becoming a labour shortage problem.

The U.S. total population is projected to stop growing by 2056 while remaining the same size as in the previous year. This figure, however, includes the country’s migrant population. Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030. Deaths will start to exceed births, consequently making immigrants an increasingly important driver of population growth and economic stability.

Policy Over Prosperity

The recent shifts in America’s immigration policy have begun to reveal their economic consequences. Trump’s main arguments in favour of these changes often go along the lines of  “They’re taking your jobs. Every job produced in this country over the last two years has gone to illegal aliens.” The president has delivered many statements of the sort throughout his 2024 campaign and during his time in office.

In the 2024 fiscal year, the U.S. economy had added around 230,000 jobs a month. Conversely, approximately 170,000 immigrants had received initial employment authorisation documents from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services every month. This data does not exactly add up to Trump’s claims – the immigrant workers would account for just under half of the growth from that fiscal year. As these numbers suggest, there is no logical basis for the president’s statements.

Industries such as education, healthcare, and construction depend heavily on immigrant labor, particularly in low-wage and labor-intensive roles that face chronic labor shortages and high vacancy rates among U.S.-born workers. Jobs held by U.S.-born and immigrant workers are often complementary and economically linked. For example, when immigrant workers are restricted from employment in the childcare sector, the supply of childcare services declines, leading U.S.-born mothers to reduce their labor force participation.  If the Trump administration follows through with its goals of deporting four million people over its four-year term, by its end, there would be 3.3 million fewer employed immigrants and 2.6 million fewer employed U.S.-born workers. 18.8 per cent of construction jobs and 15.1 per cent of child care jobs could be eliminated – the very jobs which shape the future of American society. 

Aside from the clear economic effects of these violent immigration policies, it is important to consider the indirect effects that large-scale deportations will have on the American market. 

In a zero-migration America facing an ageing population, the government would also have to consider rising ageing-related costs. The U.S. is already spending 2.4 times as much on the elderly as it is on children, on a per capita basis. This gap is bound to widen even further. As investment in infrastructure, childcare, and education declines, long-term economic consequences emerge. Deteriorating infrastructure would increase the risk of accidents, while reduced access to education from formative years onward would shrink the future supply of skilled professionals, including health specialists. 

Simultaneously, a smaller working-age population would mean fewer taxpayers supporting the growing pension and healthcare systems, intensifying pressure on public finances. Labour shortages would become more widespread, particularly in the sectors already dependent on younger and migrant workers, such as the aforementioned healthcare, construction, and education. Slower productivity growth and rising wage costs could potentially push prices higher, while reduced innovation would weaken long-term economic competition. Rather than stabilising the economy, as President Trump suggests, restrictive immigration in a potentially ageing society risks amplifying fiscal strain and slowing economic growth.

The Global Cost of Closing America’s Doors

Beyond its domestic consequences, a turn toward restrictive immigration controls also risks weakening the United States’ standing in the global economy. Financial markets are not only shaped by core economic indicators, but also by confidence and predictability. The U.S. has long been a magnet for foreign scientists, entrepreneurs, and students, but its recent stance on reduced openness toward global cooperation risks discouraging the very talent that drives innovation and long-term economic growth. This is particularly true for sectors driven by innovation and human capital. Over time, these doubts can discourage foreign investment and incentivise firms and highly skilled workers to relocate to more welcoming economies like Canada, Europe or Asia. As global confidence in the U.S. weakens, the economic costs will not be felt immediately, but slower investment, reduced innovation and a diminished role for the U.S. in the global economy will speak for themselves.

A Nation Weakened by Its Own Barriers

The vision of a zero-migration America rests on the illusion that economic power can be preserved by closing the country off from the world. Deporting large numbers of immigrants from the United States is a major goal of the Trump administration, yet immigrants are an integral part of the U.S. labour market. As the evidence shows, increasing deportations will not only reduce opportunities for migrant workers but will also heavily impact the lives and jobs of U.S.-born workers. By following this zero-migration policy, the United States is rapidly moving away from the very foundations on which its economic growth and global influence were built. What is sold as economic protectionism ultimately exposes itself as an illusion, threatening the very economy it claims to defend. 

Sources: The Economist, The New York Times, CNN, Time, National Public Radio, ABC News, The Associated Press, Brookings Institution, Economic Policy Institute, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, The Century Foundation, Center for American Progress

Written by Nina Lewandowska

Editted by Sarah Valkenburg and Gabrielle Ludes