Tug of war in the Red Sea: the Case of the Suez Canal

by Eleonore Dlugosz Donnen

The Houthis have been cracking down on maritime security since 2023, and the consequences for the Suez Canal have not been long in coming. Where are we two years later in the tensions of the Red Sea, and how are these tensions perceived internationally?

Egypt Against Houthis, First Tug of War

The first tug-of-war over the Suez Canal has to do with the Houthis. The Houthis are a Yemeni armed group that emerged in the early 2000s. They have since become notorious for taking control of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, overthrowing the Yemeni government and asserting their power. It is in terms of maritime security that they are threatening the peace of the Suez Canal, carrying out numerous large-scale attacks against ships sailing in the Red Sea. The Houthis have done more than 250 attacks in the Red Sea since November 2023, corresponding to the escalation of violence between Palestine and Israel. This has heightened concerns about maritime security in the region and, consequently, regarding the Suez Canal, which is heavily dependent on maritime trade. As ships face attacks, the Suez Canal has become a dangerous route, leading to reduced maritime traffic. The Houthis tried to assert their position in the Red Sea by forcing international ships to find other maritime routes. International traffic was therefore diverted via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. Leading to major economic losses for the Suez Canal, where traffic has fallen by 70 per cent, resulting in losses of 800 million dollars a month for Egypt. Egypt depends on the Suez Canal for two per cent of its gross domestic product. To cope with this loss of income, Egypt has been able to rely on foreign investors such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as well as on aid from international organisations, such as an eight billion dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund. The symbolic importance of Egypt's primary canal is thus significantly diminishing, representing both a significant economic and geopolitical setback.

The World Against Houthis, Second Tug of War

While Egypt has been hit by the actions of the Houthis in the Red Sea, it is unfortunately not the only country that depends on the Suez Canal. The international significance of this canal no longer needs to be proven, as the Red Sea provided a crucial maritime route that saved both time and money. Since the attacks, higher transport costs have had to be anticipated. Ships have had to bypass Africa via the Cape of Good Hope rather than simply using the Suez Canal. This strategy was adopted by companies such as CMA CGM, which stopped their passage through the Red Sea due to the Houthi attacks. The Suez Canal is a vital maritime point for international trade. Since December 2023, at least thirteen major shipping operators have announced the suspension of travel in the Red Sea. The Houthis' escalation of security measures stems from their response to the Palestinian situation, which they denounce through those attacks. They announced a halt to attacks on ships not linked to Israel in early 2025 during the Gaza ceasefire attempt. Signalling to the international community that Israel was the Houthis' primary concern, and they were using disruptions to global trade as leverage to influence the situation in Gaza. The world was affected by the tensions in the Red Sea, and several players who were victims of these attacks tried to step up their naval patrols to counter the Houthi attacks, including the United States and certain European powers. The European Union itself launched Operation Aspides in February 2024 in response to the attacks on the Suez Canal. Since Aspides means ‘shield’ in Greek, the aim of this operation was not to fight the Houthis, as Admiral Vasileios Gyparis had explained, but rather to deal with their attacks against the shipping industry, protecting global trade and the freedom of navigation.

United States and Egypt: Future Tug of War?

Among the strong international responses, there is, of course, that of the United States, which in itself constitutes another geopolitical tug-of-war that has accentuated the already existing tensions within the Suez Canal. The arrival of the Trump administration and with it the nerve and audacity to ask for international favours in exchange for American protection. In this particular case, on Saturday, 26 April, US President Trump openly declared on his social network ‘Truth Social’ that the Panama and Suez canals should become free for American ships, whether military or commercial. The Egyptian press was outraged by these remarks, trying to use their newspapers to defend the idea of a sovereign Egypt with full sovereignty over the Suez Canal. The Egyptian press and television have been the most vocal, fiercely defending the national symbol that the Suez Canal represents for Egypt on this issue. Contrary to official government sources, who have remained fairly silent and have reacted more internally than publicly to Trump's statements. At the heart of modern Egyptian nationalism, after its nationalisation, the Suez Canal is an extension of Egypt. Asking Egypt for a pass is, therefore, a way for the Americans to reassert their foreign influence. In times of crisis, such as the attacks made by the Houthis in the Red Sea, the United States seems to find it fair to be granted free use of the Suez Canal in exchange for American aid to combat the Houthis. The US President's statement on his social network is not the first time the subject has been raised. Trump has already mentioned the idea of free passage during talks with his Egyptian counterpart. Trump considered that this would be a gesture on the part of the Egyptians to thank the American forces actively fighting against the Houthis. As an example, on the fifteenth of March, the United States began an airstrike campaign aimed directly at the Houthis. It could therefore be in Egypt's interest for the Americans to continue fighting the Houthis and therefore to do them favours.

The Suez Canal is the focus of many battles. Through the violence of their attacks, the Houthis have not only attacked the integrity of Egypt and its power residing in the Suez Canal. Additionally, they have also attacked global trade, arousing the interest of many players such as the European Union and the United States. While the tug-of-war between the Houthis and Egypt remains unresolved at present, another tug-of-war is taking shape, that of American authority over the Suez Canal. After repeatedly requesting free passage for American ships, the Egyptian government has remained silent. Tensions could also be heightened by the disagreement between the two parties over their respective positions on Gaza and the displacement of the Palestinian population. The Suez Canal is still under strain, and despite a slowdown in the Houthi attacks, the future of the Red Sea remains uncertain, and with it that of global trade.

Sources : MEMRI, BBC,  Atlantic Council, Middle East Eye, Al-Masry Al-Youm, The National, Delegation of the European Union to Egypt,  Courrier International, Reuters, The Japan Times, The New Arab, El País

Written by Eleonore Dlugosz Donnen

Edited by Roos Hoogesteger & Karla Kohlhaas