The Fight over Kashmir: The New India-Pakistan Escalation

By Agnese Coletta

Between April and May 2025, attacks between Pakistan and India over the Line of Control in Kashmir, territory claimed by both as their own, have been reported. The two nuclear-armed countries have a history of bitter rivalry over the territory. The new crisis started with a deadly militant attack in Pahalgam (in Indian-administered Kashmir), with 26 civilians dead. This escalated with a retaliation attack from India, which launched missile and air strikes on nine sites across Pakistan, targeting what it called militant positions based on "credible intelligence".

A Historical Overview

The Kashmir dispute is at the core of the longstanding animosity between South Asia’s two largest countries, India and Pakistan. Three out of four previous wars between the countries have been fought over the Kashmir territory. 

The dispute began after the countries’ break from British rule and with the 1947 Partition of Colonial India, provided by the Indian Independence Act, under which Muslim-majority Kashmir was free to become part of either India or Pakistan. The maharaja (local ruler), Hari Singh, initially wanted Kashmir to become independent, but then chose to join India, even though the area has a Muslim majority, in return for its help against an invasion of tribesmen from Pakistan. 

Subsequently, a war broke out, leading India to appeal to the UN, which recommended a plebiscite on Kashmir’s accession. However, without a demilitarisation agreement, the referendum never occurred. 

In July 1949, India and Pakistan signed an agreement to establish a ceasefire line as recommended by the UN and a de facto border was drawn – the “Line of Control (LoC)” – which, as of today, is one of the most heavily militarised frontiers. 

Two wars followed: one in 1965, and the most recent one in 1999, where India fought a brief but bitter conflict with Pakistan-backed forces. 

By 1998, both nations introduced and declared nuclear powers, with India adopting a “No First Use (NFU)” policy (with exceptions), and Pakistan relying on tactical nuclear weapons to offset India’s conventional military superiority. As of today, Delhi and Islamabad both claim Kashmir in full, even though they each only control parts of it. 

2025 Escalation: The Pahalgam Attack

On 22 April 2025, militants carried out an attack in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, part of Indian-administered Kashmir. The casualties included the death of 25 Indians, as well as one Nepali national, individuals who were mainly tourists. However, this is not the first time India has been the target of militant attacks. The 2008 Mumbai attacks (a 60-hour siege that killed 166 people) were followed in 2016 by “surgical strikes” across the LoC after 19 Indian soldiers died in Uri. Then, in 2019, the Pulwama bombing that killed 40 paramilitary personnel prompted India’s first air strike inside Pakistan since 1971 at Balakot, sparking retaliatory raids and an aerial dogfight. 

India has been holding Pakistan-based militants responsible, however, Pakistan has denied any involvement. Regarding the April 2025 attack, The Resistance Front (TRF), an armed group, which India insists is a proxy for the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack. 

2025 Escalation: India’s Response – Operation Sindoor

In the early hours of 7 May 2025, India launched “Operation Sindoor,” a series of coordinated missile and air strikes targeting what it called militant positions based on "credible intelligence", on nine sites in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. 

Pakistan declared that only six sites were hit, and claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets and a drone – a claim that India has yet to confirm. 

Indian officials claimed the strikes killed several militants and destroyed key infrastructure. However, independent verification was lacking, and Pakistan strongly rejected the claims, calling the attacks “unprovoked, baseless, and a clear violation of international law”. Furthermore, Islamabad reported that Indian air strikes and shelling along the LoC left 26 people dead and 46 wounded. Meanwhile, the Indian army stated that Pakistani shelling on its side of the de facto border killed ten civilians.

Fallout of India-Pakistan Diplomatic Measures

Following the Pahalgam attack, we witnessed a rapid decline in diplomatic ties. India expelled Pakistani diplomats, recalled its own staff, suspended all visa services, closed its borders, and announced withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan responded by suspending the Shimla Agreement, closing border crossings and airspace, as well as halting bilateral trade. 

International Reactions

The escalation has drawn attention and concern from world leaders. Beijing has called for restraint from both sides –“We call on both India and Pakistan to prioritise peace and stability, remain calm and restrained, and avoid taking actions that further complicate the situation”, urging for dialogue, similar to other countries. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also called for “maximum restraint”, warning that “the world cannot afford a military confrontation between Pakistan and India.” The European Union (EU) has echoed these calls, with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stressing the need for “immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to diplomatic channels.” United States President Trump has also expressed concern over the escalating tensions, emphasising the importance of de-escalation; “It’s a shame,” he stated, “they’ve gone tit for tat, so hopefully they can stop now.” Russia has also stated its concern, with the Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasising that Moscow is “ready to assist in efforts to restore stability.” 

“Tit for Tat” - What Will Happen Next? 

In a statement on Wednesday, 7 May 2025, New Delhi said its actions were "focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature," stating that it avoided targeting Pakistani military facilities. Meanwhile, Pakistani military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry stated on Thursday, 8 May 2025, that India “will continue to pay dearly for this naked aggression.” Experts say the scope and intensity of the latest violence exceeds that of the strikes in 2019, with Islamabad on Wednesday calling India's move an "act of war" and vowing retaliation.

Both sides are currently continuing to trade heavy artillery fire, heightening concerns that it could escalate into a full-blown conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations. With world leaders urging for a de-escalation, and with stakes as high as ever, it is clear that the world cannot afford yet another military confrontation with disastrous repercussions, as stated by Guterres. 

Sources: BBC News, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, Time, CNN, The New York Times, Global Zero, Global Conflict Tracker, EuroNews, Hindustan Times, DW, NBC News.

Written by Agnese Coletta

Edited by Nina Gush & Sarah Valkenburg