The Costs of Hybrid Warfare: Consequences of Weaponised Migration at the EU Border

By: Nina Lewandowska

Since July 2021, thousands of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and Africa, have arrived at the Polish-Belarusian border seeking asylum in the European Union (EU). They have since been refused entry into Poland and subsequently into the EU, due to rising anti-migration policies prevalent within the Union. Beneath the surface, however, the EU is facing one of its biggest challenges from Belarusian and Russian aggression in recent years. Who is really at fault, and how does this affect the EU’s future? 

The EU’s History with Migration 

The EU is known for making deals with neighbouring countries to curb migration into the region. On 18 March 2016, for instance, the EU and Türkiye reached an agreement to limit the flow of irregular migration through Türkiye to the Union. 

Türkiye was scheduled to receive six billion euros to support the migrants who were forced to remain there. However, according to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, only three billion euros were received. Since then, Türkiye has repeatedly threatened to let migrants into the 

EU despite the agreement, which influenced the Union to issue an additional payment of three billion euros in 2021. Such agreements don’t only have disastrous consequences on the lives and wellbeing of migrants, as claimed by multiple NGOs, but also create possibilities for countries to take advantage of the EU in a similar manner to what Türkiye allegedly did. 

Belarus’ Attack on the EU 

This is exactly what Aleksandr Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, otherwise known as Europe’s last dictator, is aiming to achieve. Prior to the arrival of migrants at the Polish border, Lukashenko brutally suppressed protests against his 2020 re-election. These extreme acts of aggression led the EU to impose sanctions on Belarus, prompting Lukashenko to formulate means of retaliation against the EU. He went on to make statements about how Belarus would not stop migrants trying to enter the EU, which triggered a significant influx of migrants looking for access to the Union. Lukashenko’s response was to provide the migrants with tourist visas and planes owned by Belarus’ national airline, Belavia, which transported them to Minsk, the capital city of Belarus. From there, the migrants were taken by coach to the Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian borders. Upon arrival, the migrants were met with, sometimes violent, pushbacks from the Polish side, a clear violation of international law.

When the migrants left the area surrounding the border and returned to Belarus, the Belarusian border control refused them entry back into the country on the grounds that their tourist visas had expired, while also subjecting the migrants to violence and inhuman treatment. In August 2021, following these developments, the Polish government declared a state of emergency on the border with Belarus. Meanwhile, on 2 December 2021, another round of sanctions was imposed on prominent Belarusian individuals and entities, such as high-ranking political figures of the Lukashenko regime, as well as Belavia Airlines and hotels, which helped organise illegal border crossings through Belarus to the EU. The EU, when placing the sanctions, cited continued human rights violations and the instrumentalisation of migrants as the reasons. 

The Progression of the Border Crisis 

Since then, the migrants transported by Lukashenko have been stuck in the sliver of forest surrounding the border. Trapped between two countries, these people have been faced with a humanitarian crisis, where food and water aren’t readily available, and cold conditions are life-threatening. Unfortunately, the migrants were influenced by the Belarusian authorities once again. The Belarusian border control reportedly encouraged the migrants to clash with the Polish border officers and try to break through the wall constructed along the border. These acts of aggression have since been interpreted as attacks on the EU border, orchestrated by Belarus under the guise of migration. In response, Poland has implemented new laws stating that once a migrant is stopped at the EU border after an illegal crossing, they will be immediately removed from Polish territory. These measures, once again, are in violation of international law and have been criticised by humanitarian organisations. 

Economic Consequences for Poland and the EU 

Since the start of the crisis on the border, Poland has spent 600 million euros per year on the upkeep of border control. The vast majority of these costs are related to the construction of the wall, which reduces the possibility of illegal border crossings. Other costs include the wages of the border control officers as well as the constant upkeep of multiple military buildings. The EU had been made aware of these costs and, as of 11 January 2024, decided to provide Poland with 52 million euros to reinforce the protection from Russia and Belarus. The increasingly large expense of 600 million is unfortunately unsustainable for a country like

Poland, and this minuscule payment from the EU is not sufficient, especially when the safety and sovereignty of EU states are at stake. 

The Significance of Security 

This geopolitical crisis is unfortunately nowhere near ending. After only three months of migrations, over 5,000 crossings through the Polish border ended up continuing into Germany. These numbers seem insignificant when compared to the migration crisis of 2015-2016, where over two and a half million people applied for asylum in Europe. This is why many don’t understand the significance of keeping the EU borders closed for the migrants in Belarus. The fact is, this is not a migration crisis. The migrants are purely being used as a tool to attack NATO and the EU through a border violation crisis orchestrated by Belarus and likely Russia, one of Belarus’s biggest allies. 

What Will Happen Next? 

This masked attack on the EU, combined with other extreme tensions from Eastern Europe, like the Russian drone invasions of Polish airspace, sheds light on the conflict-ridden state of the world, now closer to home than ever. As of now, NATO countries have decided to implement Article 4 in order to discuss military protection strategies in case of a war with Russia, Belarus and their allies. It is hard to say how elected officials will proceed to deal with these crises, though. Actions, nonetheless, are being undertaken to assist NATO nations in maintaining the union’s safety and security despite the Eastern aggressor’s plans.

Sources: UK Parliament – House of Commons Library, Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights (HFHR), The Guardian, Amnesty International (Europe), The Guardian, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, BBC News, The Independent, Wprost (Biznes), Government of Poland – Ministry of the Interior and Administration (gov.pl), Council of the European Union (Consilium Europa), Politico Europe, Government of Poland – Special Services (gov.pl), European Parliament, Human Rights Watch, TVN24.

Written by: Nina Lewandowska

Edited by: Nina Gush & Sarah Valkenburg