Power Dynamics in the Melting Arctic: Geopolitics, Resources, and Routes

By Agnese Coletta

The Arctic Circle has emerged as the stage for a complex global power struggle driven by climate change and demand for resources. As temperatures rise four times faster here than the global average, the retreating ice unveils new maritime routes and access to natural resources. The current situation is prompting states and corporations to reassess their strategies and economic calculations, seeking opportunities in shipping, energy, minerals, and fisheries, among others. However, at the same time, concerns and uncertainties over sovereignty, security, environmental protection, and indigenous rights rise and intensify. 

Melting Ice and Emerging Routes

In recent years, satellite data and in site measurements have confirmed that Arctic sea ice is diminishing at an extremely fast pace, showing new interest in maritime routes. Most famously, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), hugging Russia’s coastline, has emerged as the most advanced corridor between North America and Eurasia. Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear agency, reported a record 38 million metric tons of cargo shipped in 2024, a major increase, with foreign vessel traffic expected to rise up to 50% in 2025. Russia asserts sovereignty over the NSR, requiring transit permits and icebreaker escorts. However, the U.S. and The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reject this stance as violating freedom of navigation. Tensions escalated in July 2023, when Russian and Chinese warships conducted joint patrols near Alaska, testing U.S. territorial responses. 

Meanwhile, Canada claims that the Northwest Passage (NWP) is facing similar challenges. With only one operational deepwater port at Churchill, Canada is racing to build infrastructure in Nunavut, while the U.S. develops its first Arctic deepwater port in Alaska. 

In general, at this time, shipping lines still largely avoid regular Arctic routes due to unpredictable ice conditions, high insurance costs, lack of infrastructure, and geopolitical uncertainties. Although disruption in traditional routes, such as the instability in the Red Sea, has prompted interest in Arctic alternatives. 

Resource Wealth and Access

The Arctic region is believed to hold significant resources, which provide vast economic and strategic opportunities: 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas, 13% of its oil, as well as vast deposits of rare earth minerals essential for green technology and defence are hidden beneath the thawing permafrost. Greenland alone retains massive deposits of rare earth elements (REEs), graphite, niobium, and cobalt, minerals which are essential for electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, and advanced weaponry, among others. A comprehensive 2023 assessment identified 38 raw materials in Greenland alone with ‘high or moderate’ extraction potential. In May 2025, the country’s government granted a landmark 30-year mining permit to Greenland Anorthosite Mining (GAM), a Danish-French consortium focused on extracting anorthosite, a “rock that could offer a climate-friendly alternative in aluminium production.” The grant sparked international attention, as U.S. President Donald Trump had widely publicised his 2024 offer to purchase the island, which Greenlandic leaders rejected. However, the leaders acknowledged the event as a wake-up call. While American investment hasn’t materialised, Greenland’s Mineral Resources Minister Naaja Nathanielsen has noted that "There is no doubt that the dialogue with both the EU and Denmark is going smoother. This is not only the result of the noise made by the U.S. administration, but also the result of several years of intensified cooperation," confirming deeper liaison with Europe on sustainable extraction.

Militarisation and Defence

The rising strategic importance of the Arctic has led major powers to strengthen their military presence. Compared to others, Russia’s militarisation efforts in the Arctic are overwhelmingly larger. Recent reporting shows Russia maintains more Arctic military bases than NATO states. The country, with half of its land in the Arctic, has invested heavily in icebreakers, bases, airfields, and missile defences to secure its Northern Sea Route and resource interests. 

China, despite lacking Arctic territory, declared itself a "near-Arctic state" in 2018 and has been pursuing a "Polar Silk Road" strategy, with scientific missions and limited economic engagements. However, it raises alliance concerns about potential military footprints, although Beijing currently avoids overt deployments. 

The United States and NATO allies struggle to match this level of military presence. Countries such as Norway, Denmark, and Canada have responded with enhanced surveillance, satellite launches, ice-capable drones, and exercises aimed at monitoring Russian activity and safeguarding North Atlantic sea lines of communication, while the United States has restructured command arrangements for Greenland defence, signalling heightened priority on Arctic security. Nevertheless, the U.S. operates only two functional heavy icebreakers, compared to Russia’s fleet, and holds just three significant military bases existing above the Arctic Circle. 

Indigenous and Environmental Considerations

However, the recent resource development projects face fierce opposition from Indigenous communities and environmental groups.

Indigenous peoples in the Arctic, such as Inuit, Sámi, and others, have inhabited the region for millennia, possessing traditional knowledge crucial for understanding environmental changes in the area. Resource development and increased shipping present risks to fragile ecosystems and marine mammals (already in danger due to the climate change crisis), as well as cultural practices. For instance, Greenland’s Inughuit people accuse external powers of ‘green colonialism’: leveraging climate concerns to justify resource extraction while marginalising natives, their rights and their traditional livelihoods.

Moreover, reports highlight that the melting permafrost threatens infrastructure and releases greenhouse gases, while increased vessel traffic elevates risks of spills and disturbances to wildlife. Indigenous organisations, such as the Inuit Circumpolar Council, have been advocating for meaningful participation in decision-making and consent for projects affecting their lands and waters. Environmental impact assessments and Arctic Council guidelines aim to balance development with conservation; however, critics warn that enforcement is still inconsistent, and the rapid progression of climate change surpasses regulatory measures. 

Path Forward

The Arctic’s alteration underlines both opportunity and caution: as ice retreat unlocks routes and resources, it also magnifies environmental fragility, Indigenous rights concerns, and intricate global security issues. The territory’s potential for energy, minerals, and shorter shipping corridors cannot be separated from the issues arising alongside it. Dealing with the complex challenges of the Arctic requires thoughtful policy decisions, strong international cooperation, and the ability to adapt as the ice shifts, technology evolves, and global power balances change. Looking forward, it will be crucial to have open conversations and careful planning to balance strategic goals with protecting the environment and maintaining stability in one of the world’s most fragile regions.

Sources: The Guardian, USFunds, Reuters, Bradley, Modern Diplomacy, BBC, Arctic Council, Canadian Global Affairs Institute, The Times. 

Written by Agnese Coletta

Edited by Nina Gush & Sarah Valkenburg