Iran’s Declining Influence in the Middle East: Israel’s Moment to Strike

By Ana Malamud

For decades, Iran meticulously cultivated an extensive network of proxy militias and allied regimes across the Middle East to counter Israeli influence and project regional power. From Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza to its deep ties with Syria and strategic entrenchment with the Houthis in Yemen, Tehran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” had become a defining pillar of its foreign policy.

However, over the past few years, that axis has begun to crumble, leaving Iran increasingly isolated. In this evolving landscape, Israel has seized what it views as a rare strategic opportunity to attack its largest rival in the region, not just against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but seemingly aimed at dismantling the regime itself and asserting itself as the regional hegemon.

From Allies to Adversaries: Iran’s Turn Since 1979

Ironically, Iran and Israel were once aligned. Under the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran became the second Muslim-majority country after Turkey to recognise Israel. That partnership ended abruptly with the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which ushered in Ayatollah Khomeini’s theocratic regime. The new leadership adopted an explicitly anti-Israeli and anti-Western foreign policy, framing Israel as a regional adversary to be contained through resistance.

In the decades that followed, Iran poured billions of dollars into cultivating proxy groups across the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Iraqi Shiite militias, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Assad regime in Syria all became central nodes in Tehran’s influence network.

Just a few years ago, the U.S. reduced its military presence in the Middle East. Parallel to this, Israel was undergoing a series of judicial reforms that alarmed the international community. At that moment, it seemed the stage was set for Iran to further assert itself. Yet the opposite occurred: Iran’s proxy architecture began to deteriorate under mounting pressure.

The Gaza War: the Collapse of Hamas

The turning point came on 7 October 2023, when Hamas, an Iran-backed group, launched a large-scale surprise attack on Israel. The Israeli military responded with overwhelming and sustained force. Over the course of the following year, Israel's campaign systematically dismantled Hamas’s leadership, infrastructure, and operational capacity.

By September 2024, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant declared that “Hamas as a military formation no longer exists”, to the point that it had been degraded sufficiently to no longer pose a threat to Israeli citizens.

This marked not only the decimation of a key Iranian proxy, but also demonstrated Israel’s capacity to decisively eliminate regional threats, casting doubt on the effectiveness of Iran’s deterrence model.

Hezbollah: from Ferocious to Fragile

Lebanon-based Hezbollah, long considered Iran’s crown jewel in its proxy arsenal, quickly responded to the Gaza war with its own escalation in solidarity with Hamas, vowing to stand with Palestine.

Yet by mid-2024, Israel unleashed an innovative operation that implanted explosives in Hezbollah’s communication devices—phones, walkie-talkies, and radios—causing sudden, lethal disruption. Days later, Israeli intelligence tracked and killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with multiple high-ranking commanders in a coordinated strike. This decapitation assault broke the operational backbone of Hezbollah. Finally, in September 2024, following 14 months of clashes, Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire with Israel brokered by the U.S. and France.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s domestic standing in Lebanon has suffered. Once seen as a resistance force, the group is increasingly blamed for bringing war to Lebanese soil. As political analyst Johnny Mounayar noted, “Domestically in Lebanon, opposition to Hezbollah has grown and even former allies are no longer aligned with it.”

Perhaps the clearest sign of Hezbollah’s weakened position is that when Israel recently launched its direct attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the group issued formal condemnations but refrained from engaging in any military action in defence of its Iranian ally. This uncharacteristic inaction signalled hesitation and, possibly, exhaustion.

Signs of fragility were already apparent when Hezbollah was unable to come to the defence of the Assad regime in Syria, another crucial Iranian ally, after rebels launched an offensive and toppled the pro-Iranian government, replacing it with one far less aligned with Tehran.

The Fall of Assad and Syria’s Realignment

A major geopolitical shock for Iran occurred in late 2024 with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Despite more than a decade of Iranian and Russian support to resist them, Syrian rebel forces ultimately toppled Assad’s government.

The new leadership in Damascus is taking a sharply different trajectory, distancing itself from Tehran and warming ties with the West and Sunni Arab states. This realignment is disastrous for Iran. Syria had long served as the main transit corridor for weapons and cash flowing from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. With Syria no longer friendly, Iran’s logistical supply chain in the Levant has been severed, further isolating Hezbollah and deepening Iran’s strategic paralysis. In parallel, Israeli warplanes now have an easier path to vulnerable targets in Iran, as Syria is no longer committed to intercepting them.

The Houthis and Iraqi Militias: limited Reach

Among Iran’s remaining proxies, the Houthis in Yemen and Iraqi Shiite militias remain relatively intact. Yet, both play a marginal role in Iran’s direct conflict with Israel.

The Houthis have continued to launch missiles and drones at Israeli targets and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians. However, their response to Israel’s direct attack on Iran was limited to rhetorical condemnation. Unlike previous conflicts, they refrained from escalating militarily.

Iraqi militias, while still aligned with Tehran, are similarly peripheral to the broader strategic equation, and increasingly constrained by Iraqi politics and U.S. pressure.

The Strategic Opportunity: Operation Rising Lion

It is within this new strategic context that Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion”, a direct, large-scale assault on Iranian territory. While officially aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the campaign’s scope and intensity suggest a broader objective: undermining the Islamic Republic’s power base and potentially catalysing regime change.

This time, Iran stood almost entirely alone. Hamas lies in ruins. Hezbollah is beheaded and politically fragile. Syria has pivoted away. The Houthis and Iraqi militias remain on the sidelines. The once-formidable Axis of Resistance has splintered.

As Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Centre remarked, “The axis hasn’t been fully destroyed, but it has been significantly diminished beyond the point of return”.

Meanwhile, Iran’s internal situation grows ever more volatile. The economy remains in crisis, the regime is increasingly unpopular, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s succession remains uncertain. The Islamic Republic appears more vulnerable now than at any point since the 1979 Revolution.

How this direct Iranian-Israeli confrontation reshapes the Middle East remains to be seen. But what is clear is that the balance of power is shifting.

Sources: New York Times, CBS News, The Guardian, The Times of Israel, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist, CNBC, BBC

Written by Ana Malamud

Edited by Nina Gush & Sarah Valkenburg